MTBE consumption to double by 2005

27 May 1996 00:00  [Source: ACN]

ASIA Pacific consumption of MTBE will almost double over the next ten years. It is expected to reach 65 000 bbl/day (2.8m tonne/year) in 2000 and 75 000 bbl/day in 2005, DeWitt consultant Bill Richard told delegates at the DeWitt Far East Conference in Singapore in May.

Imports to the region will also rise sharply as production is predicted to grow to only 40 000 bbl/day by 2000, Richard added.

Demand in Asia Pacific will rise 25% in 1996 alone, from 1995 levels of 32 000 bbl/day and could reach at least 40 000 bbl/day this year, Richard said. The world's MTBE consumption will be 392 880 bbl/day in 1996, Richard said.

Much of the MTBE in Asia Pacific will be used to meet required gasoline octane and other specifications. About 12% will be strictly for clean-air uses and about 25% will be available for voluntary use, Richard estimated.

Capacity in the region will increase this year as Yukong, Hyundai Petrochemical and Ssangyong Oil Refinery start up new production. Asia Pacific MTBE imports will drop to only 3000 bbl/day this year from 5800 bbl/day in 1995. Imports will continue to come primarily from the Middle East.

DeWitt expects the Middle East to continue as the major export supplier for the world, with very little domestic use. Most of the MTBE used in the Middle East will be incorporated into exported gasoline.

In the Middle East, one major merchant plant will come onstream this year. Sadaf now plans to start production at its 700 000 tonne/year plant 'later in the year'. It was originally scheduled to start in June.

Richard described two different demand scenarios over the next ten years. Asian consumption is expected to grow from a small base to 75 000 bbl/day by 2005 in both cases.

However, world consumption by 2005 could reach 477 519 bbl/day in the base case with a 50% probability, and 566 070 bbl/day in the high-usage case which has a 15% probability, Richard said. This would result in a production shortfall of 16 321 bbl/day in the base case and 104 873 bbl/day in the high usage case, he added.

MTBE startups in 1996 ('000 tonne/year)
	Capacity	Location	Startup
Sadaf*	700**	Al-Jubail, Saudi Arabia	Q4
Yukong	60***	Ulsan, South Korea	Q3
Hyundai Petrochemical	100	Daesan, South Korea	August
Ssangyong Oil Refinery	100	Onsan, South Korea	Q4
*joint venture between Sabic and Pecten Arabian		**swing MTBE/ETBE plant
***expansion of existing facility, total capacity will be 210 000 tonne/year

MTBE world trade balance (bbl/day)
	1995	1996	2000	2005
Asia Pacific*
Capacity	41 535	44 343	50 093	50 093
Produced	26 200	37 000	40 000	40 000
Consumed	32 000	40 000	65 000	75 000
Imported	5800	3000	25 000	35 000
Middle East/Africa*
Capacity	60 750	77 000	117 070	117 070
Produced	38 242	51 804	87 493	93 656
Consumed	10 000	10 000	12 000	14 000
Imported	(28 242)	(41 804)	(75 493)	(79 656)
World*
Capacity	475 138	509 861	578 296	578 296
Produced	341 514	392 880	454 124	461 197
Consumed	341 514	392 880	454 124	477 519
Imported	0	0	0	16 321
World**
Capacity	475 138	509 861	578 296	578 296
Produced	341 514	392 880	460 287	461 197
Consumed	341 514	392 880	518 687	566 070
Imported	0	0	58 400	104 873
Source: DeWitt			*base case **high-usage case

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