C4 stocks up

20 April 1998 00:00  [Source: ACN]

Butadiene inventories head towards uncomfortable levels

Ethylene: Production was estimated to have been about 4.682bn lb (2.12m tonne) in March, about 151m lb/day. Daily production increased 0.6% over February. The operating rate was 97.3% of nameplate capacity. The rate of production is expected to remain at 100% of effective capacity in April.

Ethylene inventories are considered to be in the comfortable zone. However, contract prices continue to fall. Contract prices were 22-22.5 cent/lb in February.

The contract price for March is not settled but is expected to decline by 1 cent/lb. The inventory build is expected to continue through the rest of the year, barring any major unscheduled outages.

Cash costs for producing ethylene from various feedstocks decreased. The rank was:

Gas oil	6.4 cent/lb
Natural gasoline	6.7 cent/lb
Propane	7.6 cent/lb
Butane	8.3 cent/lb
Ethane	11.7 cent/lb.

Propylene: Contract prices for March for chemical and polymer grade were tentatively established at 14 cent/lb and 15.5 cent/lb respectively. Requests for renegotiations may lead to lower prices.

Refinery-grade propylene contract prices were 10.5 cent/lb in March.

Butadiene: The March contract price was 17 cent/lb. Inventories rose towards uncomfortable levels. Coproduction was higher from crackers as the feedstock slate became heavier. The April contract price is 17 cent/lb, unchanged from March.

Methanol: Supplies were more than ample. Increased import supplies and the shutdown of several large consuming units led to a severe price erosion. Large buyers were paying 36-38 cent/gal. Spot prices were in the 25-26 cent/gal range. Some domestic units are considering reduced operations.

MTBE: Production decreased to 176 000 bbl/day in February, down by 12 000 bbl/day from January. Stocks were unchanged at 8.7m bbl. During March, spot prices were 58-66 cent/gal.

Acrylonitrile: Prices for export were about US$520-540/tonne cfr NEA in March.

Vinyl chloride monomer: Demand for ethylene dichloride (EDC) and VCM continued to slide. PVC prices were flat and ethylene prices slipped. VCM formula prices were projected to be 19 cent/lb in March. EDC export prices were US$180-190/tonne cif SEA.

Ethylene glycol: Fibre-grade prices appear to be falling to 27 cent/lb or lower. Anti-freeze-grade prices fell to around 22 cent/lb.

Benzene: March contract prices settled at 77 cent/gal, down by 8 cent/gal from February. Spot prices were around 77-79 cent/gal in late March. April contract prices have been set at 77 cent/gal.

Toluene: Spot prices tracked gasoline with little support from chemical demand. Prices were 63-64 cent/gal in early April. The calculated blending value for toluene in early April was 62 cent/gal for conventional gasoline and 65.5 cent/gal for reformulated gasoline.

Mixed xylenes: The April contract price was a rollover at 60 cent/gal. The March contract price decreased by 3 cent/gal to 60 cent/ gal. Spot prices were about 61-62 cent/gal in early April.

Styrene: Spot prices were in a narrow range in March. Prices were 16.5-18 cent/lb. The March contract price was 24.5-26.5 cent/lb.

Paraxylene: Discussions for Q2 contract prices are in the 15.5-16 cent/lb range. Q1 contract prices were 19 cent/lb.

Orthoxylene: The contract price settled at 14.5 cent/lb for March, down 1.5 cent/lb from February.

US bulk chemical prices*

	Contract		Spot
	Feb	Mar	Mar	Apr
Ethylene5	23-23.5	na	17-17.5	na
Propylene7	16.25	15.5	13-13.5	na
Butadiene	21	17	14.75-15.25	na
Methanol4	44-46	36-38	28-31	25-26
MTBE4	na	na	63-64.75	62-63
Acrylonitrile8	550-570	520-540	na	na
Ethylene glycol3	30	27	na	na
VCM	20.35	19	na	na
Benzene	85	77	74-75	77-78
Toluene4	na	na	59-61	63-64
Xylenes4,6	63	60	58-60	61-62
Styrene	27-29	24.5-26.5	16.5-18	16.5-18
Paraxylene	19	19	na	na
Orthoxylene	16	14.5	na	na

1 actual
2 estimate
3 fibre grade
4 cent/gal
5 list contract
6 fob Gulf Coast
7 polymer grade
8 US Gulf Coast export price in US$/tonne cifNEA

Prices are cent/lb unless indicated. na=not available
*The information contained in this table is based on data supplied by Pace Consultants, 4848 Loop Central Dr. II, Houston, Texas 77081, USA.

Tel: +1 713 669 7803, Fax: +1 713 661 8476.

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