Analysis: Acetic acid output to grow by 2.9%/year to '09

02 April 2000 17:30  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (CNI)--World production of acetic acid will grow by an average of 2.9% a year between 1999 and 2009, according to a new study* by Tecnon Consulting World Network.

It says output will grow from 6.3m tonne last year to just over 8.4m tonne in 2009.

Capacity is forecast to rise from 8.2m tonne in 1999 to 11.2m tonne in 2009, an average annual growth rate of 3.1%.

North America is currently the leading producer, with 37.6% of global acetic acid output, according to the study. Western Europe is second, with 22.4% followed by East Asia with 18.4%. By 2009, North America will have retained first place but its share will have fallen marginally to 37.3%. Western Europe's share will have dropped to 15.8%, while East Asia's will have jumped to 22.6%.

The largest share of global acetic acid capacity is held by North America, with 35.6%. Western Europe follows with 21.1% and East Asia with 19.6%. All regions other than South America, West Europe and Japan are increasing in capacity, indicating a substantial investment worldwide.

The rise in East Asia's forecast share of world production reflects relative levels of regional investment in new capacity, says Tecnon. It explains that consumption, capacity and production for both acetic acid and vinyl acetate (the major end use for acetic acid) will grow strongly in East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia.

Tecnon expects utilisation of world acetic acid capacity to decline from 76.4% last year to 74.8% by 2001. Thereafter, it is forecast to increase to 77.1% in 2002 followed by a further dip to 70.5% in 2005 as new capacity comes onstream. Utilisation is then expected to recover somewhat to 73.4% in 2006.

World consumption of acetic acid in 1999 to 2009 is forecast to rise at the average annual rate of 2.9%. Consumption growth will average 2.1% in North America, 1.6% in Western Europe and 0.7% in Japan. But in South and Southeast Asia, consumption is expected to average 6.6%.

It put total world vinyl acetate capacity at 4.6m tonne last year. Production and consumption were each just under 4m tonne. The study forecasts global vinyl acetate output to grow by an average of 3.2% a year; capacity is expected to expand at a slightly higher rate, 3.5%.

Utilisation of vinyl acetate capacity was 86.8% last year and is forecast to grow to 87.8% by 2001. Thereafter, Tecnon expects utilisation to decrease to a minimum of 80.7% in 2005 and 79% in 2007. In 2009 it will have recovered to 83.9%.

World consumption of vinyl acetate will expand by 3.2% a year on average in the 1999-2009 period, driven mainly by polyvinyl acetate production - the main end use of vinyl acetate. The study expects consumption of vinyl acetate for polyvinyl acetate production to grow by an average of 4.4% a year. Polyvinyl alcohol, the second largest driver of vinyl acetate consumption, will grow by only 1.3% a year.

Growth in vinyl acetate consumption in South and Southeast Asia is expected to be very rapid over the next 10 years, in contrast with Western Europe and Japan. Tecnon forecasts consumption in South and Southeast Asia to rise by an average of 9.3%, while Western Europe and Japan will experience expansion rates of only 1.8% and 1.5% respectively.

*Acetic Acid & Vinyl Acetate 1999-2009 World Study by Tecnon Consulting.

By: Mark Whitfield
+44 20 8652 3214

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