Analysis: Butadiene demand to grow 3.7%/year to '05

06 December 2000 17:37  [Source: ICIS news]

HOUSTON (CNI)--Global demand for butadiene will increase at an average annual rate of 3.7% over the next six years to reach 10.56m tonne in 2005, according to a market analysis made available Wednesday by consulting firm CMAI.

In its recently completed "2001 World Butadiene Analysis," Houston-based Chemical Market Associates Inc (CMAI) noted that the projected 3.7% annual growth rate for world butadiene demand is lower than the compounded annual rate of 4% seen in the period 1995-1999.

CMAI's 20^th annual butadiene analysis projects that greatest demand growth for the product will be in the India subcontinent and southeast Asia, while countries of the former Soviet Union will see butadiene demand return to positive growth following steady declines prior to 1999.

Northeast Asia will continue as the world's largest consuming region for refined butadiene, and demand in that region will increase by more than 630 000 tonne during the six years to 2005, the consulting firm projects. Demand in western Europe will increase by more than 450 000 tonne during the six-year period, putting that region in "a distant second position" compared to northeast Asia.

New production capacity is being added at an annualised rate of 2.3%, according to the CMAI study, with more than 600 000 tonne of new capacity to come on line in Northeast Asia, chiefly in China and Taiwan.

Worldwide, new butadiene capacity is being added at an annualised rate of 2.3%, and CMAI notes that demand growth will outpace the rate of capacity additions during the forecast period. "This will push butadiene plant operating rates to more than 90.4% of their designed capacity by the end of the period," CMAI said.

The consulting firm noted too that "planned and unplanned outages generally result in a loss of 3-4.5% of capacity each year," meaning that "actual operating rates will be close to 95% of nameplate capacity" by the end of 2005.

By: Joe Kamalick
+1 713 525 2653

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