Phenol/Acetone '02: Phenol demand to grow 5% a yr to '06
22 May 2002 13:18 [Source: ICIS news]
MADRID (CNI)--Strong growth in polycarbonate (PC) will drive global phenol demand to increase at a healthy 5.4%/year in the 2001-06 period, predicted Ben Fitzpatrick, business manager, phenol/acetone, Shell Chemical.
However, he warned delegates here on Wednesday at the ICIS-LOR World Phenol/Acetone conference* that too much capacity was being built and there was potential for further industry restructuring.
The phenol industry added 1.62m tonne/year of capacity in the 1999-2002 period but demand only grew by 400 000 tonne. As a result, capacity utilisation rates fell to less than 80% in 2001.
A further 1.5m tonne/year of capacity is planned for 2003-05, nearly all of it in Asia. At the projected 5.4%/year growth rate, capacity utilisation rates will only reach 95% shortly after 2006 if half of the announced new capacity comes onstream.
World phenol demand did grow at an average of 7%/year in 1996-2000 but this average growth rate falls to 3.9%/year if the decline in 2001 is included in the period.
Polycarbonate demand is predicted by Fitzpatrick to grow 10%/year in 2001-2006, slowing slightly to 9%/year in 2006-10. This compares to past growth rates of 12%/year.
Polycarbonate use in optical media has been driving this growth at an average of 9-12%/year. In particular, sales of DVDs have been growing at 60%/year since 2000 while recordable CDs have seen 20%/year growth.
Optical media is the third largest sector, accounting for 16% of PC demand in 2000. The two largest end-uses – electrical & electronic and glazing accounting for 26% and 21% respectively – have been growing at a more sedate 4-6%/year.
*The 2nd ICIS-LOR World Phenol/Acetone conference concludes on Thursday.
By: Peter Taffe
+44 20 8652 3214
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