Analysis: US pharma intermediates mkt to hit $5.23bn in '10

21 May 2004 11:03  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (CNI)--The US pharmaceuticals intermediates market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% to $5.23bn (Euro4.4bn) in 2010 from $3.80bn last year, according to a report* by consultants Frost & Sullivan (F&S).

 

The key growth drivers are new drug development, overall growth in the pharmaceutical industry, increased outsourcing resulting partly from low-priced Asian competition, and patent expiration.

 

The key restraints are the reduced number of new drugs coming into the market, higher production costs arising from changing cGMP (Good Manufacturing Practice) requirements, and competition from Far East suppliers which have lower production costs.

 

F&S divided the US pharmaceuticals ingredients markets into the nine segments of carbon-carbon bond forming, chiral chemistry, condensation & saponification, halogenation, nitrogen chemistry, phosphorus chemistry, photochemistry, redox & electro chemistry, and sulphur chemistry.

 

The carbon-carbon bond forming segment is expected to rise at a CAGR of 3.4% to $761.7m in 2010 over the period 2003-10. The key drivers include growing demand for organometallic chemistry and new drugs requiring carbon-carbon reactions but growth could be hampered by overcapacity, said F&S.

 

Revenues from the chiral chemistry segment are expected to increase at a CAGR of 7.5% to $1.45bn in 2010. Regulatory requirements drive chiral growth and pharmaceutical companies prefer single enantiomers but the high cost of technology restricts growth and reduced outsourcing by big pharmaceuticals firms may slow demand, F&S noted.

 

The condensation & saponification segment is expected to rise at a CAGR of 3.3% to $756.2m due to new drugs needing condensation and saponification reactions and the supplier trend toward offering a complete technology portfolio. The market restraints are low margins arising from competition and the lack of technology differentiation.

 

Revenues in the halogentation chemistry segment are expected to rise at a CAGR of 4.4% to $561.4m in 2010 as a large number of drugs requires fluorine compounds and innovative technology attracts outsourcing, said F&S. However, the substantial investments required limit growth and fierce competition exists in this segment.

 

The nitrogen chemistry segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% to $707.7m in 2010. New drugs require new methods of nitro-group introduction and the hazardous nature of nitrogen chemistry encourages outsourcing but Asian producers will pose a stiff challenge, F&S observed.

 

Revenues in the phosphorus chemistry segment are expected to rise at a CAGR of 3.5% to $119.4m, driven by the use of bisphosphonate in the treatment of osteoporosis. At the same time, the hazardous nature of phosphorus represents a growth constraint, said F&S.

 

The photochemistry segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% to $48.2m in 2010. The key drivers are growth in halogenation chemistry, the importance of phosgene in organic synthesis and increasing demand for chiral compounds. However, the toxic nature of phosgene limits usage, noted F&S.

 

Revenues in the redox & electro chemistry chemistry segment are expected to rise at a CAGR of 3.8% to $588.9m in 2010, due to increasing demand for catalytic oxidation and new drugs needing redox chemistry.  At the same time, growth in this segment could be stifled by intense competition and the lack of technology differentiation.

 

The sulphur chemistry segment is expected to rise at a CAGR of 3.2% to $234.9m. The varied application of sulphur-containing drugs spur growth but the drugs’ possible side-effects could also restrict their usage.

 

* US Pharmaceuticals Intermediates (Code 7767) is available from: Frost & Sullivan, 4100 Chancellor Court, Oxford Business Park, Oxford, OX4 2GX, UK. Contact: Bill Stringer +44 (0) 1865 398651, bill.stringer@frost.com

By: Russell Ong
+44 208 652 3214

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