21 May 2007 21:52 [Source: ICIS news]
However, Guy Caruso, director of the department’s Energy Information Administration, said above-ground risks - such as political instability in some energy producing countries and natural disasters - could escalate prices sharply to $100/bbl and higher over the next 23 years.
“We think that oil prices in the $50-60/bbl range are sustainable to the out years around 2030,” Caruso said in announcing the administration’s 2007 annual international energy outlook.
“We recognize that there is great uncertainty about the price of oil, both in the near term and in the long term, but the availability of oil resources is there,” he said. “It is not a question of available resources but rather a question of the above-ground risks - political instability and the possibility of natural disasters - that could push oil prices into our high range estimates,” he said.
He said world production of energy liquids will likely grow from around 85m oil equivalent barrels per day at present to 118m bbls/day by 2030.
Most of that increase in production, he said, will come from member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which are forecast to boost output from about 32m bbls/day currently to 54m bbls/day by 2030 - an increase of nearly 70%.
Liquids production by non-OPEC countries will be flat to modest over the next 23 years, Caruso said, rising from about 47m bbls/day today to some 53m bbls day in 2030, a gain of only 13%.
The contribution of unconventional liquids - which includes biofuels, coal-to-liquids and Canadian oil sands among others - will increase nearly three-fold over the next two decades, he said, from 2.6m bbls/day last year to an estimated 10m bbls/day by 2030.
However, those unconventional liquids resources will remain a small percentage of overall liquids production, rising from about 3% today to 8.5% of total production by 2030.
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