Oil supplies to remain tight into '08 - report

10 July 2007 20:20  [Source: ICIS news]

HOUSTON (ICIS news)--A US agency said on Tuesday that world oil supplies will remain tight through 2007 and into 2008.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) included the forecast in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on Tuesday.

Oil prices should reach a peak in August before easing slightly, the report said.

Overall, prices on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) should  reach an average of $65.56 (€47.86)/bbl in 2007 and $66.92/bbl in 2008, the EIA said.

Rising oil consumption, production cuts from OPEC and modest increase from groups outside of the cartel are all factors that caused oil inventories to drop from their highest levels since 1998, the report said.

In the second quarter, world oil consumption rose by 1.4m bbl/day from the same time last year, the administration said. In the first quarter, it rose by 400,000 bbl/day.

The EIA report did not include base consumption rates.

While demand increased, OPEC production remained flat, according to the EIA's preliminary statistics in the second quarter. During that time, OPEC production reached 30.3m bbl/day, up 300,000 bbl/day from the first quarter.

However, second-quarter production was down 800,000 bbl/day from the third quarter of 2006, the administration said. OPEC officials supportted the position that they do not need to raise production, due to ample oil inventories, temporary geopolitical tensions and refining problems in the US.

China and the US remain the world's largest oil consumers, the administration said. US consumption rose by 200,000 bbl/day in the second quarter, and Chinese demand rose by 500,000 bbl/day.

For the year, world oil consumption should grow by 1.3m bbl/day, the administration said. In 2008, consumption should increase by 1.5m bbl/day.

($1 = €0.73)

By: Al Greenwood
+1 713 525 2645

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