US housing, autos seen on the mend in 2008

30 August 2007 19:17  [Source: ICIS news]

HOUSTON (ICIS news)--North America’s housing and auto markets will begin to recover in 2008, but the US chemical industry will have to grapple with the long-term movement of end-use customer industries overseas, American Chemistry Council chief economist Kevin Swift said on Thursday.

Speaking at a Praxair customer seminar in Houston, Swift gave an overview of global industry trends and the rise of emerging markets.

“For 2007, anything housing or light-vehicle related will be soft, with other consumer-oriented markets and machinery doing better,” he said. Light vehicles include automobiles, light vans and sports utility vehicles (SUVs).

In 2008, “machinery and related investment markets soften, but housing and light vehicle-related markets begin recover”, he said. “Other consumer-oriented markets [will be] slow in 2008.”

Housing and light vehicles are key markets for the US chemical industry.

On average, the construction sector directly purchases $8 in chemistry for every $1,000 worth of output, according to the chemistry council, but that figure can almost double when counting indirect use.

Indirectly, the construction sector purchases chemistry products through supplies such as concrete admixtures, asphalt additives and modifiers, anti-corrosion and other protective coatings, waterproofing, plastics pipe, other construction products, adhesives and sealants.

The typical North American light vehicle contains chemicals products and chemical processing worth an estimated $2,219, according to the council.

Of more long-term concern is the shift of end-use customer industries overseas from the US, Swift said.

As emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East continue to grow at a faster pace than the developed markets of the US, Western Europe and Japan, more end-use industries will migrate to areas of greater growth, Swift said.

For example, the Asia-Pacific region’s share of global incremental growth in industrial machinery during the period of 2006-16 is projected at about 25%, while the US share is projected at less than 20%.

The Asia-Pacific region will account for 55% of the growth in light-vehicle assemblies during the period of 2006-2013, compared with only 9% in the US.

The US will import more end-use customer items, Swift said.

The rising level of light vehicle imports into the US market will take away $8.2bn (€5.9bn) of chemicals sales between 2007 and 2008, according to the ACC.

Swift said the global gross domestic product (GDP) has experienced an average growth of 4%/year for the past seven years, the strongest period of growth in a generation.

However, the GDP of regions with emerging markets is growing two to three times faster than that of developed markets, Swift said.

($1.00 = €0.73)

By: Brian Ford
+1 713 525 2653

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