World oil supply up 1.4m bbl/day in October - IEA

13 November 2007 11:14  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS news)--World oil supply increased 1.4m bbl/day in October as non-OPEC outages receded and OPEC volumes increased, but demand was revised down 500,000 bbl/day, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.


In its monthly oil market report, the IEA said recovering production in China and Azerbaijan plus rising Russian output boosted non-OPEC supplies, while continuing outages in OECD countries will see non-OPEC supply levelling off in November before resuming growth in December.


October OPEC supply increased 410,000 bbl/day to 31.2m bbl/day. Half the rise came from Iraq and Angola, where supplies could increase further in November, the IEA said.


“Signs of higher November supply from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and others may be offset by UAE field maintenance,” said the IEA, adding that spare capacity in October among OPEC producers slipped to 2.46m bbl/day.


Global demand was revised down 500,000 bbl/day due to higher prices, weaker-then-expected data from the US and former Soviet Union (FSU) nations and delays to European heating oil restocking.


The IEA said that coupled with lower GDP growth, these revisions extended to the 2008 forecast, which has been adjusted down by 300,000 bbl/day. World demand now averages 85.7m bbl/day in 2007 and 87.7m bbl/day for 2008.


WTI crude hit a new record above $98/bbl in early November driven by lower crude stocks, constrained supplies and new political tensions.


“There are, however, strong indications that high prices are depressing demand, which together with signs of higher output from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Nigeria, have capped further price gains,” said the report.


OECD industry stocks fell 29.5m bbl/day in September, with Japanese crude stocks falling to their lowest level in at least 20 years.


Global refinery crude runs were seen at 73.5m bbl/day in the fourth quarter, revised lower by 700,000 bbl/day on weaker demand, increased offline capacity and higher planned maintenance in some regions.


By: Mark Watts
+44 20 8652 3214

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