30 November 2007 16:31 [Source: ICIS news]
By Anna Jagger
LONDON (ICIS news)--Brazilian resins producers have had a good year, aided by a gas crisis in ?xml:namespace>
“Everybody is discussing the crude oil price and the naphtha price, and the future of the petrochemical industry next year,” Manoel Carnauba, Braskem’s vice president for basic petrochemicals said last week.
“It’s a global concern. Everybody is losing competitiveness.”
He was talking to ICIS during the Latin American Chemical and Petrochemicals Association (APLA) meeting in
“What will happen next year if crude prices exceed $100/bbl and if naphtha costs stay above $800/tonne?” Carnauba asked. “
An additional concern is the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, which is impacting the profitability of
But the mood was generally festive at the APLA meeting.
Brazilian resins demand has exceeded expectations this year, supported by lower interest rates and economic stability.
“This changes the equation in a dramatic fashion,” said Jorge Buhler of Polyolefins Consulting (PC).
Across Latin America, the economies are generally improving and many countries, including
There is strong demand for agricultural and mineral commodities and additional income from oil and gas exports, Buhler told delegates at PC’s pre-APLA conference.
“It’s a very exciting time in
PC estimates that Dow’s production at the site fell by 50% between June and August.
Brazilian resins demand is expected to remain strong in 2008, buoyed by a strengthening of the civil construction sector.
The economic fundamentals are stable, observed Geraldo Markus, export and planning manager at IPQ, and Brazilian resins demand is expected to grow by between 4% and 8% next year, depending on the product.
“But we will see what happens in 2009,” Markus said, pointing to new capacity coming onstream in the Middle East and predictions of a 2009 global petrochemicals downturn. He was speaking in an interview for ICIS radio.
It is just a matter of time before the industry enters an oversupply situation, Gary Adams, president of CMAI, told delegates at the APLA meeting. “However, the balance of positives and negatives in the global economy is still positive,” he added.
Consumer demand is expected to remain strong, especially in the BRIC (
CMAI is predicting a global petrochemicals recovery in 2012, following a downturn in 2009 as capacity overcomes growth.
Latin American resins demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of between 4% and 7% per year between 2001 and 2011. Polypropylene (PP) is leading with projected growth of 7%, followed by polyvinyl chloride (PVC) with 5% and PE with 4%.
For more on the new wave of capacity coming onstream in the
Please see ICIS radio for all the APLA interviews.
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