11 December 2007 18:53 [Source: ICIS news]
Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA), told an energy forum in
Relating the IEA’s annual energy outlook, Birol said that with global oil demand expected to exceed production capacity additions in the next ten years, “a supply crunch cannot be ruled out”.
He said that a total of 37.5m bbl/day of gross oil capacity additions will be needed by 2015. Member nations of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producing countries have announced plans to add 25m bbl/day of new capacity through 2015.
“Thus, a further 12.5m bbl/day of gross capacity would need to be added - or demand growth curbed by that amount by 2015,” he said.
Current global oil production and demand are almost evenly matched at around 85m bbl/day.
He said the ability of global oil producers to meet that additional 37.5m bbl/day of demand is in question, noting that “the current reserve replacement ratio of the top five IOCs [independent oil companies] has fallen, and it is becoming more difficult to replace reserves despite rising oil prices”.
He said that
Birol said that the US economy was still the leading global source of CO2 emissions in 2005 at 5.8bn tonnes, followed by China’s 5.1bn tonnes, but that China became the leading emitter of CO2 this year and is expected to emit 8.6bn tonnes of CO2 in 2015 compared with a projected US level of 6.4bn tonnes.
For the latest chemical news, data and analysis that directly impacts your business sign up for a free trial to ICIS news - the breaking online news service for the global chemical industry.
Get the facts and analysis behind the headlines from our market leading weekly magazine: sign up to a free trial to ICIS Chemical Business.
|ICIS news FREE TRIAL|
|Get access to breaking chemical news as it happens.|
|ICIS Global Petrochemical Index (IPEX)|
|ICIS Global Petrochemical Index (IPEX). Download the free tabular data and a chart of the historical index|
Asian Chemical Connections