NPRA ’08: Obama seen certain to win - maybe

01 April 2008 18:29  [Source: ICIS news]

SAN ANTONIO, Texas (ICIS news)--Broad voter unease over the US economy, the war in Iraq and health care issues strongly favour the election of a Democrat as president in November, leading pollsters said on Tuesday.

 

Peter Hart, head of Hart Research Associates and a 19-year veteran of polling for NBC and the Wall Street Journal, told chemical industry executives that this could be the biggest election year victory for Democrats since 1964.

 

He said that recent polling shows that fully two-thirds of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction, the highest negative on this standard research question in 40 years.

 

Nearly 60% of voters think the US is in decline, 70% believe life for their children will be worse than now and 76% of those polled said they want a new president with an approach to governing that is different from President George Bush.

 

Hart said that major issues driving both national politics and personal feelings are, in order, the economy, the Iraq war, health care, energy costs, terrorism, illegal immigration, global warming and foreign policy.

 

In addition, he said that 55% of Americans report they have been negatively affected by economic woes beyond simple increases in energy and food prices, to the extent that they cannot meet mortgage payments, have lost job income or pension payments or have suffered sharp investment losses.

 

“This could be the biggest election year for Democrats in a generation,” Hart said.

 

“But we have to remember the Democrats’ historic ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory,” he added, citing earlier presidential contests in which a Democrat candidate appeared to be the front-runner only to lose the election.

 

Hart noted that in recent polling the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, Senator John McCain (Arizona), is running about even with the likely Democratic candidate, Senator Barack Obama (Illinois), with voters favouring Obama by 44% to McCain’s 42%.

 

However, Hart said, “McCain will inevitably be tied to the economy because it is a Republican economy, and the electorate are deeply unhappy with the current situation and want a change.”

 

Pollster Frank Luntz, head of Luntz Research Associates, agreed, saying:  “If I had to make a bet right now, I’d have to say that Obama will be president.”

 

Appearing with Hart at a final forum in the 33rd annual International Petrochemicals Conference, Luntz said that Obama has electrified voters.  “It is easier to get tickets to a Bruce Springsteen concert than to get a seat at an Obama speech,” he said.  “Where ever Obama appears, people are lining up to see him.”

 

In response to a question, Hart said he thought it unlikely that Utah Governor Jon Huntsman would be picked as a vice presidential running mate for McCain because of perceived bias against Huntsman’s Mormon faith.  The Utah governor is the son and namesake of Huntsman Companies founder Jon Huntsman.

 

Luntz said that regardless of whether a Democrat or a Republican is elected president, there is almost certainly going to be increased taxes on business and personal income, although McCain would be least likely to raise taxes and Obama has all but promised tax increases.

 

Sponsored by the National Petrochemical & Refiners Association (NPRA), the conference concluded on Tuesday.

By: Joe Kamalick
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