US leading indicators index falls 0.1% in June

21 July 2008 16:56  [Source: ICIS news]

HOUSTON (ICIS news)--The index of leading US economic indicators fell 0.1% in June, suggesting a weak economy through the end of the year, the Conference Board said on Monday.

“The domestic economy is showing no sign of strength,” said Ken Goldstein, labour economist for the board.

The New York City-based Conference Board, a 92-year-old business analysis group, said June’s dip puts the closely watched leading index at 101.7, as measured against the baseline of 100 in 2004.

The June number followed a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in May, and a 0.1% increase in April.

“The deep financial crisis, a prolonged, intense slump in housing, high gasoline and food prices, weak consumer confidence and a weak dollar are all combining to produce unrelenting downward pressure on economic activity,” Goldstein said. “This is also why it wouldn’t take much to push the economy so that it’s even weaker in the second half of 2008.”

The board’s leading index is made up of 10 economic indicators, including stock prices, interest rates, manufacturers’ orders, building permits and unemployment claims, among others.

Real money supply, stock prices and weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance made large negative contributions to the index in June, more than offsetting positive contributions from building permits, the interest rate spread and supplier deliveries, the board said.

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