IEA ups 2009 global oil demand forecast

12 August 2008 11:47  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS news)--The global oil demand forecast for 2009 has been increased by 70,000 bbl/day to 87.8m bbl/day driven by projected demand from non-OECD countries, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

 

Demand for 2008 was left unchanged at 86.9m bbl/day, 0.9% higher than 2007, the agency said in its monthly oil report.

 

“Crude prices had fallen $30/bbl since mid-July highs by early August on increased supplies, weaker OECD demand and as the first US Gulf hurricanes passed without causing damage,” said the IEA report.

 

"Currently, neither the recent shutdown of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, nor military clashes in the Caucasus have materially affected prices," it said.

 

Global oil supply increased by 890,000 bbl/day in July to 87.8m bbl/day. Norway, Canada, Argentina and Brazil underpinned non-OPEC growth of 520,000 bbl/day, amid a lull in seasonal maintenance elsewhere.

 

OPEC July crude supplies rose by 145,000 bbl/day to 32.8m bbl/day driven by higher output in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

 

OECD oil stocks fell by 15.3m bbl in June to 2.58bn bbl, while weak demand kept forward demand cover above average at 54.3 days.

 

Global refinery crude throughput averaged 75m bbl/day in July, 100,000 bbl/day up compared with June. Lower OECD crude run estimates on still-weak US refining margins offset upward revisions to China, after its record June throughput, said the report.

 

The OECD has 30 member states, comprising of Western industrialised nations plus Japan and South Korea.

 

By: Mark Watts
+44 20 8652 3214

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