Car markets face ‘collapse’ in 2009 – J.D. Power

09 October 2008 19:10  [Source: ICIS news]

TORONTO (ICIS news)--Automotive markets in the US and elsewhere may face “outright collapse” next year amid a deepening economic and financial crisis, research firm J.D. Power said on Thursday.

 

“While the global automotive industry is clearly experiencing a slowdown in 2008, the global market in 2009 may experience an outright collapse,” said Jeff Schuster, the firm’s executive director of automotive forecasting.

 

“While mature markets are being impacted more severely than emerging markets, no country or region is completely immune to the turmoil,” he said.

 

US retail sales of new vehicles were forecast at 10.8m units this year, down 15.6%, or 2m units from last year’s sales, as the market continued to deteriorate amid the country’s financial and economic woes, J.D. Power said.

 

About two thirds of the expected decline for 2008 was due to consumers delaying vehicle purchases, the researchers said.

 

On average, US drivers were keeping their vehicles four months longer in 2008 compared with 2007, up from 67 months to 71 months.

 

The remaining one third of the volume decline came from reduced leasing activity, the researchers said.

 

“Buyers are both voluntarily and involuntarily exiting the US new-vehicle market,” said Schuster.

 

“The additional decline in expected vehicle sales is a function of growing concerns around availability of credit and leasing, declines in vehicle equity and general economic stress.”

 

The current turmoil and financial crisis added risk to the 2008 forecast of up to 200,000 units, as it was unclear how consumers would respond in the fourth quarter, the firm said.

 

Total US new vehicle sales - which includes retail and fleet sales - were expected to drop to 13.6m units this year, down 16% from 2007. 

 

As for other regions, J.D. Power said growth in automotive markets in China and India was slowing, compared with 2007.

 

China’s light vehicle sales were forecast at 8.9m for 2008, up 9.7% from 2007 but less than one half the growth achieved that year.

 

India’s light-vehicle sales were forecast at 1.8m, up 5.1% from 2007 but considerably less than the growth rates of 16% and 21% achieved in 2007 and 2006, respectively.

 

In Europe, light vehicles sales were expected to drop 3.1% to 21.3m units this year as growth in eastern Europe was more than offset by declines in western Europe.

 

Automobiles are an important chemical end market, with each car accounting for an average $2,200 worth of chemical products and processes, according to the American Chemistry Council.

 

Automobile parts include rubber hoses, plastic dashboards, catalysts, fibres, adhesives, coatings and many other plastics and chemical-related products.

 

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By: Stefan Baumgarten
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