06 February 2009 15:56 [Source: ICIS news]
NEW DELHI (ICIS news)--The Indian economy is likely to grow by only 3.8-3.9% in the first half of 2009, warned an economist on Friday.
“The downturn of the Indian economy is upon us and the situation has been aggravated by the global downturn,” said Rajiv Kumar, director and CEO of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) at the Plastindia 2009 International Conference.
Exports are in negative territory since October and imports are also declining, which says that the domestic economy is slowing, he added.
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“In 1990-91 the external sector was less than 20% of the Indian GDP. It has now grown to 50%.
On the global economy, Kumar said a recovery was not likely until 2010.
“And then too, it could be shallow. Some people talk of a ‘V’ shaped recovery but that looks unrealistic,” he said.
Kumar highlighted that a series of stimulus packages announced around the world, totalling $4,600bn, might not be enough to take care of the de-leveraging that has taken place in the financial world. It is estimated that around $30,000bn of liquidity has been pulled out of the system, he said.
Kumar stressed that it was time for
But he cautioned that many companies had not factored in a significant slowdown in
“Whether industrial capacity created in
The conference, organised by the Plastindia Foundation, concludes on Saturday.
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