12 March 2009 09:02 [Source: ICIS news]
BEIJING (ICIS news)--China’s total export volume is likely to fall further in the coming months due to falling consumption in the US, a senior official of the National Development and Research Commission (NRDC) said on Thursday.
"Saving rates in the US rose to 5% in January this year, from -2.5% in 2005. The higher rate of saving has a stabilising impact on the global economy but weaker US import demand would hurt China’s exports," NRDC academy of macroeconomic research vice director Chen Dongqi said in Mandarin.
"China’s exports are expected to fall further as the global economic downturn deepens," he added.
Chen was speaking at the 2nd China Petrochemical Summit, a two-day conference in Beijing which ends on Friday.
Despite the bearish export outlook, Chen was positive that the recently announced government stimulus package would boost domestic demand, and hence the government’s gross domestic product (GDP) estimate at 8% for this year would be achievable.
"I believe this year’s GDP will hit 8%, plus or minus 5%," he said.
China’s main exports to the US include plastic products, organic chemicals, and electrical and power generation equipment.
($1 = €0.78)
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