13 March 2009 16:40 [Source: ICIS news]
HOUSTON (ICIS news)--Deutsche Bank lowered on Friday its estimate for US GDP growth, projecting a 1.5% loss in the 2009 third quarter and a 0.5% loss in the fourth quarter as leading market indicators continue to decline at an ever-faster pace, the firm said.
The company attributed the lower estimate to weaker economic indicators such as the temporary-hiring and factory-work-week indexes. The factory work-week, now at 39.6 hours, is at its lowest level since March 1983, the report said.
Previously, Deutsche Bank projected the GDP to remain flat in the third quarter and rise by 1% in the fourth quarter.
Reports were also poor within the chemical industry.
Chemical railcar loadings for the previous four weeks were down 15.1% from the year-ago period despite a sharp rise in ethanol demand, Deutsche Bank said. Analysts project ethanol rail shipments to increase by approximately 19% in 2009, giving a 3% boost to overall chemical railcar loadings.
Furthermore, Deutsche Bank said February’s tightening of the supply-to-demand relationship within ethylene would likely be short-lived.
Analysts project ethylene margins to show no growth in March, due to about 6% of regional ethylene capacity coming back online and a further weakening of downstream demand due to the global recession.
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