IMF sees 5.6% decline for Germany in 2009, 1.0% drop in 2010

22 April 2009 17:19  [Source: ICIS news]

TORONTO (ICIS news)--The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast a 5.6% decline in German GDP this year, one of the worst projections so far for Europe’s largest economy, it said on Wednesday.

For 2010, Germany would drop by 1.0%, according to a report by the IMF.

Meanwhile, the world economy was expected to shrink by 1.3% this year but grow 1.9% next year, according to the IMF.

For the euro area, the IMF predicted a 4.2% decline in 2009 and a drop of 0.4% in 2010.

For the US, the IMF projected a 2.8% decline this year and zero growth in 2010.

The only notable growth economies were China and India, with growth rates of 6.5% and 4.5% this year, and 7.5% and 5.6% next year, respectively.

According to separate press reports on Wednesday, Germany’s council of economic exports (Sachverstaendigenrat) was poised to issue a projection of a 6.0% decline in the country's economy in 2009, and a 0.5% drop in 2010.

The council is an academic body which advises the German government and parliament on economic policy issues.

Recent forecasts by the OECD and German economic institutes had projected a decline of about 5.0%, with a modest recovery next year.

Juergen Hambrecht, the CEO of chemicals major BASF, told a business journal on Wednesday he did not see a turnaround before mid-to-end 2010.

The country’s chemical production was expected to drop by 3.5% according to a projection by industry group Verband der Chemischen Industrie last month. However, excluding the pharmaceuticals sector, underlying German chemicals production was expected to shrink 5-6% in 2009, VCI said.

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By: Stefan Baumgarten
+1 713 525 2653



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