Early season tropical storms could target Texas - forecast

19 May 2009 17:24  [Source: ICIS news]

HOUSTON (ICIS news)--Tropical storms and hurricanes could threaten the Texas Gulf coast more than usual in June and July, a leading weather forecaster said on Tuesday.

Most of the US petrochemical industry is concentrated along the US Gulf coast and the region surrounding Houston is considered its hub.  Hurricane Ike in Texas and Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana significantly cut production in many locations in 2008.

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on 1 June, is expected to have about 10 storms and six hurricanes, said Joe Bastardi, chief hurricane forecaster for the private US firm AccuWeather, in a press statement.

Those figures are slightly below average and lower than previous projections due to the anticipated presence of an El Nino weather pattern, which is associated historically with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Colorado State University hurricane forecasters also lowered their projections last month, predicting 12 named storms and six hurricanes after initially projecting 14 and seven, respectively.

The El Nino pattern will keep northern Atlantic waters cooler than normal so the majority of storms are expected to develop on more southerly tracks early in the season, Bastardi said. That potentially leaves Texas vulnerable to storms passing through the Caribbean and moving west-northwest, as Ike did last September.

A tropical disturbance near the Bahamas prompted concern late on Monday when the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said it would send an airplane mission to investigate to the situation.

However, the NHC said on Tuesday that that mission had been cancelled as the system appears to be being absorbed by a larger low-pressure area over Florida.

The larger low-pressure system is expected to move west into the Gulf, but it is now considered “unlikely” to develop during the next two days, forecasters said.

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By: Ben DuBose
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