INSIGHT: Looking beyond the GM bankruptcy

04 June 2009 17:24  [Source: ICIS news]

By Joseph Chang

NEW YORK (ICIS news)--The bankruptcy filing of the once dominant US auto giant General Motors (GM), though widely expected, will have ripple effects across the supply chain.

Businesses will be sold off and shut down, and production will shift to smaller, more fuel-efficient cars, as GM seeks to transform itself into a leaner, more cost-competitive company.

The chemical industry itself will take its lumps as automakers struggle and shift away from producing larger vehicles, which consume more materials. However, this gives the industry a great opportunity to innovate new products and materials suited for fuel efficiency - from increasingly lighter-weight plastics to improved tyres that reduce rolling resistance.

The GM bankruptcy coincides with another historic event in the chemical industry.

US-based chemical firm Solutia has completed the sale of its $2bn (€1.4bn) nylon business for $50m in cash to private equity firm SK Capital Partners II.

In addition to the cash proceeds, Solutia will get $4m in annual payments of $1m/year starting in 2011, and retain a 2% stake in the business. Plus, SK will take over $80m in pension liabilities.

All in all, Jefferies & Co. analyst Laurence Alexander estimates Solutia sold the nylon business for $202m in economic value, including working capital adjustments.

Solutia chairman, president and CEO Jeffry Quinn called the sale a “watershed event in the history of our company”.

“The nylon business was the [primary] business of Monsanto at one point," he said. "It marks the end to a 50-plus year history of being a part of our business... (and) will help define the course of the company for years to come.”

Solutia was spun off from Monsanto in 1997, filed for bankruptcy in 2003, and emerged from bankruptcy in 2008.

With the nylon sale, Solutia becomes what it calls a “pure-play performance materials and specialty chemicals company”, selling plastic glass interlayer, window films, rubber chemicals, and hydraulic and heat transfer fluids.

While around 60% of its annual sales come from the automotive sector, the company has survived and emerged through bankruptcy and remains profitable, even in these “worst of times”.

Around 8-9% of Solutia’s sales come from US-produced autos.

CEO Quinn reaffirmed guidance of $325m-$350m in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for 2009, and Wall Street expects Solutia to earn 50 cents/share this year and 83 cents/share in 2010.

The CEO sees signs of stability and government stimulus programmes boosting demand in the automotive sectors in Asia and Europe in particular.

Quinn also expects GM to exit bankruptcy relatively quickly.

“With the massive amount of assistance GM is getting, this will be a very expedited slam-dunk bankruptcy - arms will be twisted and mountains moved to get them out,” he said.

Looking even further ahead, investors may flock to the company's shares as a play on the eventual recovery of the automotive sector.

Already, investors are applauding the deal, sending shares of Solutia up $0.72, or 13.3%, to $6.15 on Tuesday.

($1 = €0.71)

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By: Joseph Chang
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