11 June 2009 14:43 [Source: ICIS news]
TORONTO (ICIS news)--The world economy has reached its bottom after a breathtaking decline in global production in the first quarter, Germany-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) said on Thursday.
A number of indicators increasingly pointed to stabilisation of output in the course of the summer, it said.
World trade had been stabilising after January, with foreign trade in emerging countries even slightly rising.
At the same time commodity prices had started to recover, the institute said.
Industrial production was showing increasing signs of bottoming out, and economic sentiment indicators, while still at very low levels, had started to improve, it said.
However, the recovery would be modest by historical standards.
Global GDP was expected to shrink 1.5% in 2009 – compared with IfW’s earlier forecast of a 0.8% decline - before growing 2.3% in 2010, the institute said.
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GDP in the euro area countries would drop 4.3% in 2009 and rise 0.4% in 2010, it said.
In the course of the year, the situation in
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