Potash prices likely to fall near term - US analyst

17 September 2009 16:06  [Source: ICIS news]

HOUSTON (ICIS news)--Potash fertilizer prices were set to fall into a range of $300-350/tonne (€204-238/tonne) based on recent Indian contract settlements and negative market sentiment, the New York investment firm Dahlman Rose said on Thursday.

The predicted drop in the price of potash would be a decline of at least 25% from current levels averaging $435-495/tonne FOB (free on board) for Vancouver granular.

In July, India signed annual contracts for potash imports at $460/tonne. Last year’s contracts were for more than $600/tonne.

Meanwhile, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (PotashCorp) said that North American producer inventories fell by 304,000 tonnes to just above 3m tonnes, 150% more than the five-year average.

In other news, Dahlman Rose said nitrogen fertilizer prices were predicted to rise in the near term.

A rapid increase in demand, especially for ammonia, seemed to be temporarily straining short-term supply, driving prices higher, the company said.

Dahlman Rose cited recent nitrogen fertilizer production outages in Venezuela and Algeria for tightening the global market.

The company said phosphate markets seemed to be in supply/demand balance.

($1 = €0.68)

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By: Frank Zaworski
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