Global fertilizer consumption to grow 3.6% in 2009/10 - IFA

08 October 2009 14:41  [Source: ICIS news]

MOSCOW (ICIS news)--Global fertilizer consumption is expected to grow a moderate 3.6% from 2008/09 to 2009/10, Patrick Heffer of the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) said on Thursday.

However, consumption dropped a forecast 6% between 2007/08 and 2008/09.

Speaking at IFA's Fertilizers and Agriculture Conference, Heffer said that nitrogen consumption was forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2009/10, phosphates consumption by 5.9% and potash consumption by 3.3%.

He said that while crop prices had dropped from the peak seen in 2008, they had now stabilised at a higher level than historical prices and were expected to remain relatively firm from 2009-2018 for grains and oilseeds, and even possibly increase for sugar.

He also said the agricultural price to fertilizer ratio currently made investing in nitrogen and phosphates attractive.

In the medium-term, fertilizer consumption was forecast to rise 2.1% per year until 2013/2014, he said.

However, Heffer also noted that there were several uncertainties which could impact future fertilizer consumption.

Firstly, the evolution of the financial and economic downturn and its impact on consumer confidence and access to credit could impact demand, he said.

Additionally, despite lower phosphates and potash application rates, 2009 has seen the second largest grain crop ever, with a record wheat yield in France and prospects for a high corn yield in the US, and it remained unclear what impact this could have on long term farmer behaviour, he added.

He also commented that developments in the fertilizer/crop price ratio could also affect consumption rates.

The conference runs from 7-9 October.

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By: Rebecca Clarke
+44 20 8652 3214

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