World chemical output falls 1.75% but outlook positive

27 November 2009 17:49  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS news)--World chemicals output is forecast to fall 1.75% year on year in 2009 with developed economies showing a decline of 6.50% and emerging markets growing by 6%, Oxford Economics said on Friday.

Prospects for the fourth quarter look good, the forecasting group added, with customers buying ahead of possible price increases.

"World output should grow by 7% next year reflecting the strong recovery phase,” it said.

Global chemicals production in the third quarter rose by 2% compared to the previous quarter as basic chemicals continued to lead the recovery after some stockbuilding re-emerged.

Quarter on quarter, output in the developed economies rose by 2.30%. At 3.80%, growth was fastest in the 15 EU countries in western Europe with Germany up by over 8.5% for the second successive quarter.

US output was forecast to decline 5% year on year in 2009 before recovering by 4% in 2010/2012 while Japan’s output was expected to fall by 8.25% this year, before recovering by 7.50% next year due to good performances from basic chemicals on the back of export growth into Asia.

"Chemical prices have stopped falling but on average over the next year will rise more slowly than inflation," Oxford Economics added.

“The much sharper than expected cycle was mainly due to an unprecedented level of de-stocking followed by a sharper upturn once demand edged forward. A rise in oil prices has started to drive chemical prices upwards again especially in basic chemicals,” it said.

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By: Franco Capaldo
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