Forecasters predict up to 8 hurricanes in active US storm season

07 April 2010 16:10  [Source: ICIS news]

HOUSTON (ICIS news)--US meteorologists are predicting an above average hurricane season for this year as a result of dissipating El Nino conditions and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, they said on Wednesday.

In all, 15 hurricanes and other major storms may form in the Atlantic basin - well above the historical average of 9.6 and the nine formed in 2009, meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) said.

With much of the US petrochemical industry concentrated along the Gulf coast, hurricanes can disrupt offshore crude oil and natural gas production, cut off power and damage plants.

The mere threat of a hurricane can cause companies to shut down plants as a precaution. In 2008, Hurricane Ike caused several disruptions after making landfall near Houston in September.

The Colorado State team issues four hurricane season forecasts each year along with a seasonal recap.

Forecasters gave a 69% chance for a major hurricane (winds of at least 111 miles/hour, or 179 km/hour) to make landfall along the US coastline in 2010, up from a 52% historical average and the 31% probability for 2009 given in the group’s April forecast a year ago.

The 69% figure is also up from the 64% predicted in December’s initial 2010 forecast by the group.

Of the 15 predicted storms, eight are expected to be hurricanes with four as major hurricanes. In 2009, only three of the nine storms were hurricanes, with just two as major.

No hurricanes struck the US, but Tropical Storm Ida made landfall in southeast Louisiana in November and led to the temporary shut-in of much of the region’s oil and natural gas capacity.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will last from 1 June until 30 November.

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By: Ben DuBose
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