08 June 2010 17:15 [Source: ICIS news]
“We are more bullish on the ethylene outlook than we were even six months ago,” Weideman told analysts at a webcast investor conference in ?xml:namespace>
The main reasons were improved 2010 GDP forecasts, Dow’s cost-advantaged and flexible ethylene plants in the US and elsewhere, and likely delays in the start-up of new rival ethylene capacities, especially in
Recent GDP forecasts were better than before, an important factor, as global ethylene demand has typically grown at a rate of about 1.4-1.5 times GDP, he said.
Dow’s ethylene demand in the
Meanwhile, on the supply side, planned and unplanned turnarounds had tightened the market, he said.
But even as those plants came back into operation, new ethylene capacity in the Middle East and
“We believe the projected ramp-up of this new capacity will continue to be delayed, most notably in
Furthermore, some 5m-8m tonnes of older, high-cost, naphtha-based capacity in Europe and
Dow was well-positioned to withstand any industry restructuring as the company had already acted in shutting down over 3bn lbs (1.4m tonnes) of ethylene derivative capacity, he said.
An important benefit for Dow’s US productions were that country’s new shale gas volumes, he added.
“We expect emerging developments, like new fractionation capacity, coming online this year and next, to further improve the competitiveness of our
In addition, Dow had feedstock-advantaged production in the Middle East, western
“All of this underscores why we are more bullish in our ethylene outlook than we were just six months ago.”
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