20 July 2010 09:23 [Source: ICIS news]
SHANGHAI (ICIS news)--China’s industrial production is expected to slow in the second half of the year due to a high base last year, but for the whole of 2010, overall output would still be better than expected, according the country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Tuesday.
“The full-year growth will exceed the 11% target set in early this year,” ministry spokesperson Zhu Hongren said at a press conference.
Growth in manufacturing output would likely ease to around 13% on average for the July-to-December period from 17.6% in the first half, partly due to the government’s efforts to curb energy usage of heavy industries, including petrochemicals, analysts said.
“The higher base last year after the global financial crisis is just a small factor dragging down the figure,” said Yi Lei, an analyst at Beijing-based Shanxi Securities.
“I believe China’s strong call for energy saving and emission reduction in the second half will slow down the production of heavy industries, including steel, chemicals, cement,” he added.
Towards this end,
With less than a year to go to comply with its self-imposed target,
The slowest industrial production growth this year would most probably be in September and October, analysts said, but with a strong likelihood that the government would intervene if the expansion rate eased too much.
Chinese authorities may adopt a more loose monetary policy or cut interest rates if industrial production growth falls below 10%, they said.
Analysts were expecting overall economic activities in
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