Global chemical recovery turns into expansion – US economist

02 December 2010 23:06  [Source: ICIS news]

NEW YORK (ICIS)--The global recovery in chemicals has shifted into expansion mode, which will continue into 2011 and 2012, the chief economist of the American Chemistry Council (ACC) said on Thursday.

“We are now in an expansion, driven by emerging markets strength, while the US is still in recovery mode,” said ACC chief economist Kevin Swift at a media event in New York.

Global chemical production volumes are expected to rise 8.8% in 2010 compared with a 3.3% decline in 2009, according to the ACC.

“As the global expansion continues, a 5.4% gain in global output is expected in 2011, and a 5.1% gain is expected in 2012,” said Swift.

“During the next two years, the most rapid growth will occur in the emerging nations in Asia-Pacific, Africa, the Middle East, emerging Europe and Latin America. Most notable are China, India and Brazil, but Korea, Singapore and Taiwan will present good growth prospects through 2012,” he added.

The emerging markets' chemical production volumes are estimated to increase 12.2% in 2010, 8.4% in 2011 and 7.7% in 2012, according to the ACC.

Meanwhile, US production volumes are expected to gain a more muted 3.1% in 2010, 3.0% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.

Global GDP is expected to rise 3.0% in 2011 and another 3.4% in 2012, after an estimated 3.5% increase in 2010. The US GDP is likely to lag at a projected 2.4% gain in 2011 and a 2.8% boost in 2012 after an estimated 2.7% gain in 2010, according to the ACC.

“After the cyclical bounce of late 2009 and 2010, a more sustainable pace of expanding activity is expected in 2011 and 2012,” said Swift.

“Concerns over a double-dip recession are fading. And with the strong recovery in industry profits, a new cycle of investment will soon emerge,” he added.

Paul Hodges studies key influencers shaping the chemical industry in Chemicals and the Economy  
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By: Joseph Chang
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