31 December 2010 15:46 [Source: ICIS news]
By Nigel Davis
Chemical industry economists are forecasting strong emerging market growth out to 2012 with the strength weighted more towards the early part of the period.
“During the next two years, the most rapid growth will occur in the merging nations in Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, Emerging Europe and
According to the ACC, emerging market chemicals production volumes will increase by 12.2% in 2010, by 8.4% in 2011 and by 7.7% in 2012.
But where there is growth there is some hope for stronger corporate returns. And given the lift expected for basic chemicals production in
His prediction is based on strong emerging market chemicals growth and, in the
And Alembic reckons that the market does not yet full appreciate the imminent ‘stronger for longer’ supercycle implications. Peak commodity chemical company earnings, possibly as early as 2013, could be more than double the levels seen in 2010, Ahmed suggests.
A slowdown in planned ethylene capacity expansions points to tighter supply/demand balances sooner rather than later.
In December, Lyondellbasell suggested at an investor day that peak petrochemical market conditions might be expected within three to four years.
”We think the [ethylene] up-cycle is finally in place,” Bob Patel, the head of olefins & polyolefins outside of
Demand-side uncertainty had been replaced by a more positive trend, he suggested, with close to double-digit growth in
Building away from that trough promises to be an exciting time through which
In its latest economics update, the ACC says that while individual product reports at the end of 2010 suggest some seasonal softening, the year-on-year comparisons for most resins are good. Chemicals production in the
That momentum suggests that industry players can continue to benefit from global growth running into 2011 and the
US industry pundits are forecasting a stellar year in 2011 in terms of earnings with profit improvements across the board.
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