27 January 2011 18:19 [Source: ICIS news]
HOUSTON (ICIS)--Energy demand growth from 2005 to 2030, particularly in newly industrialised countries, was forecasted to grow 35% globally and 70% in the developing world, according to ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook released on Thursday.
“The importance of living standards in the developing world [is significant],” said William Colton, vice president of corporate strategic planning. “A good new story is that China has improved its living conditions, from manual to mechanical farming, from working by hand to modern manufacturing, from cooking on wood fires to a gas stove.”
ExxonMobil has also forecasted in its Energy Outlook that oil and coal would lose share in power generation, while natural gas, along with alternative fuels, would gain share in global energy use. Natural gas will see the fastest growth in demand among fuels.
Demand for natural gas has been rising in every region of the world, with China expected to see natural gas use up 500% in 2030.
In the US, shale production and unconventional gas was forecasted to make up 50% of the fuel and energy pool.
By 2030, oil, natural gas and coal were expected to remain the dominant fuels, making up about 80% of the fuel pool. But the rise in natural gas would help to reduce reliance on coal even further.
Growth in oil demand would mainly be driven by the transportation sector.
ExxonMobil has also stressed the importance of technology evolving and playing a key role in expanding supplies and limiting emissions, Colton said.
By 2030, the global population was expected to average 8bn people, with a 100% increase in global gross domestic product (GDP), a 35% increase in energy demand and 200 quadrillion British thermal units saved through efficient energy use.
“Energy saved through efficiency gains, scientific and energy innovations will make a substantial dent,” Colton said. “[Energy] demand growth would be three times higher [without new efficiency].”
According to the Energy Outlook, the increase in carbon dioxide emissions was largely from the growth in the developing world, where emissions were expected to jump 24% from 2005 to 2030.
Emissions per capita in the US and Europe by 2030 were expected to be 30% lower, but China was expected more than double its current emissions as a result of different living standards.
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