Goldman Sachs raises Brent Q2 price forecast to $105/bbl

08 March 2011 15:03  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--Goldman Sachs has raised its second-quarter 2011 price forecast for Brent by $4.50/bbl to $105/bbl on the back of a drop in OPEC spare capacity.

The bank said it believes that Saudi Arabia is producing significantly more than indicated by official reports.

“We believe that Saudi production could be 0.5-1m bbl/day higher than the official numbers suggest, which would imply that OPEC spare capacity has already dropped below 2m bbl/day,” the report said.

Three months ago the estimated spare capacity was around 2.5-3m bbl/day, Goldman Sachs said.

“While this sharp increase seems to be a reaction to the recent collapse in Libyan output, some reports suggest that Saudi Arabia had already significantly increased production prior to the turmoil in Libya, which is more in line with our view,” Goldman said.

The bank also estimated that close to 1m bbl/day was currently being lost in Libyan production, which is around two thirds of the 1.5m bbl/day the country exported in 2010.

Meanwhile, crude oil futures dropped as media reports noted that OPEC was discussing a possible supply increase.

At GMT 14:45, April Brent was trading at $112.54/bb, down $2.50/bbl, while April WTI was at $104.08/bbl, down $1.36/bbl.

($1 = €0.72)

By: Giovanni Coiro
+44 20 8652 3214

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