22 March 2011 17:08 [Source: ICIS news]
By Nigel Davis
Fiscal stimulus and the political response introduced a degree of stability, notwithstanding
It is too early to tell, but assessments are being made of the economic impact of the
Military action in
Large external shocks to the economy are always to be expected and most forecasts are couched in terms that accept them. Nevertheless, before recent events confidence in economic recovery and growth was increasing.
Middle East tensions might have been expected.
The oil price has eased higher following the slump last week, driven by the uncertainty surrounding the terrible events in
The imposition of a ‘no-fly’ zone over
That price level could be maintained for longer if oil demand from
It is particularly difficult to assess the impact of the
The impact of the disasters on
Many automakers in Japan are facing serious supply disruptions, not only damage to their plants, but also problems such as rolling blackouts, infrastructure damage, port and shipping issues, the economics research firm IHS Global Insight said on Monday.
“The initial estimates are that this could be a protracted shutdown of the Japanese industry as well, as it is not just simply a matter of repairing plants, but of repairing infrastructure, regional power-generation ability, and even replacing workers from communities that have lost thousands upon thousands of people to the disaster and resulting in displacement,” it added.
IHS economists and others are trying to assess the impact on these sectors globally and the supply chains of which they are an integral part.
The disruptions are likely to depress global growth at a time when it is sorely needed but the rebuilding could see the situation, in part, reversed.
“How much will consumers in key economies be squeezed by rising fuel prices and shortages resulting from supply chain disruptions?” IHS asks (its economists want to make an attempt to provide some of the answers later this week). “What will be the impact on inflation, especially in the emerging world? How will policymakers react to both [
Chemical producers benefitted greatly last year from a global resurgence in manufacturing activity. The latest ‘Chemical Outlook’ newsletter from Probe Economics in the
That measure and the high oil price that is buoying upstream prices accounts for the positive business mood prevalent in the sector.
But still higher oil and difficult, but hopefully only temporary, physical market disruptions do not augur well for the near-term future. The high oil price, particularly, could put a further dampener on growth which was expected to slow this year across most of the petrochemical business.
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