Global energy use to increase 53% by 2035 – US energy department

19 September 2011 17:59  [Source: ICIS news]

WASHINGTON (ICIS)--Global energy use will grow by 53% by 2035, the US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Monday, with strong economic growth in China and India driving increased oil consumption that could push prices to $200/bbl.

In its annual International Energy Outlook (IEO), the department’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that “China and India account for half of the projected increase in world energy use over the next 25 years”.

China alone, which only recently became the world’s top energy consumer, is projected to use 68% more energy than the US by 2035,” said Howard Gruenspecht, acting EIA administrator.

“Higher economic growth in developing countries coupled with reduced supply from key exporting countries result in a high oil price case in which real oil prices exceed $169/bbl by 2020 and approach $200/bbl by 2035,” the EIA report said.

Throughout the 25-year outlook period, EIA said that while renewable energy will experience rapid growth, it will account for only 15% of worldwide energy resources by 2035, compared with its 10% share in 2008.

Despite that expansion of renewable power sources, EIA said that fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy worldwide, accounting for nearly 80% of energy use in 2035.

Among fossil energy sources, natural gas is expected to see the fastest growth rate over the next 25 years, the outlook said, in large part because of shale gas and other unconventional gas sources.

World natural gas consumption increases by 1.6% annually, from 111,000bn cubic feet (bcf) in 2008 to 169,000bcf in 2035, a 52% gain.

Global consumption of coal also will rise significantly over the period, the EIA said, increasing by 50% from 2008 to 2035, with China alone accounting for 76% of the projected net increase.

($1 = €0.73)

Paul Hodges studies key influences shaping the chemical industry in Chemicals and the Economy


By: Joe Kamalick
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