IEA revises down 2011, 2012 global oil demand growth forecast

12 October 2011 12:23  [Source: ICIS news]

IEA revises down oil demand forecastLONDON (ICIS)--The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2011 by 50,000 bbl/day and by 210,000 bbl/day for 2012 because of a downward adjustment to GDP growth assumptions.

Global oil demand in 2011 is now expected to rise 1.1% – or by 1.0m bbl/day compared with last year – to 89.2m bbl/day. In 2012, demand will rise 1.4% – or by 1.3m bbl/day – to reach 90.5m bbl/day.

The IEA also cited lower-than-expected third-quarter readings in the non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) nations as a reason for the downward revision.

“Stronger-than-expected OECD monthly submissions, primarily in Europe and the Pacific, provide some offsetting support,” the Paris-headquartered international agency added.

“Some of the demand boost stems from temporary factors, such as seasonal heating oil tank filling, while oil-fired power generation in Japan provides more lasting upside potential.”

According to the IEA’s October oil market report, global oil supply fell by 300,000 bbl/day to 88.7m bbl/day in September from August, driven lower by reduced non-OPEC output.

Non-OPEC supply fell by 300,000 bbl/day to 52.6m bbl/day in September, largely because of weather- and maintenance-related shut-ins in North America, the North Sea and Latin America, as well as unplanned outages in the Middle East, the IEA added.

“OPEC crude oil supply was down by a slight 20,000 bbl/day to 30.15m bbl/day in September, with lower output by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria partly offset by the resumption of Libyan production,” it stated.

In refining, estimates for global crude runs in the third and fourth quarter of 2011 have been revised downwards by 50,000 bbl/day and 75,000 bbl/day respectively since the IEA’s report last month.

“Stronger US runs only partly offset lower-than-expected throughputs in Asia. Global throughputs now average 75.5m bbl/day in [the] third quarter and 75.3m bbl/day in [the] fourth quarter,” the IEA said.

By: Franco Capaldo
+44 (0)20 8652 3214

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