13 October 2011 15:47 [Source: ICIS news]
WASHINGTON (ICIS)--A key measure of US commercial activity fell in September for the third consecutive month, according to a University of California business index released on Thursday, suggesting that the nation’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be zero.
The index, compiled by UCLA in cooperation with Ceridian Corp, tracks credit card purchases of diesel fuel by trucking companies across the country and serves as a real-time measure of the flow of raw materials, goods-in-process and finished products.
Ed Leamer, chief economist for the UCLA-Ceridian partnership, said that with the additional drop in the pulse of commerce index in September, “the PCI-based forecast for third quarter GDP growth is zero”.
The Commerce Department’s first estimate of
Leamer said that the July through September decline in the pulse of commerce index – an annualised fall-off of 4.3% – has been exceeded only during the depths of the 2007-2009 recession.
In his testimony before Congress last week, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke predicted that US GDP growth would decline over the next several quarters, although he did not say what he thought the just-concluded third quarter pace would be.
Paul Hodges studies key influences shaping the chemical industry in Chemicals and the Economy
For the latest chemical news, data and analysis that directly impacts your business sign up for a free trial to ICIS news - the breaking online news service for the global chemical industry.
Get the facts and analysis behind the headlines from our market leading weekly magazine: sign up to a free trial to ICIS Chemical Business.
|ICIS news FREE TRIAL|
|Get access to breaking chemical news as it happens.|
|ICIS Global Petrochemical Index (IPEX)|
|ICIS Global Petrochemical Index (IPEX). Download the free tabular data and a chart of the historical index|
Asian Chemical Connections