China's economic growth to slow further in Q4 – analysts

18 October 2011 06:16  [Source: ICIS news]

GUANGZHOU (ICIS)--China’s economic growth is expected to continue slowing down in the fourth quarter and beyond on continued tight monetary policies and dampened exports because of crises in the western economies, analysts said on Tuesday.

The world’s second biggest economy posted a year-on-year GDP growth of 9.1% in the third quarter, down from 9.5% in the second quarter and 9.7% in the first quarter, according to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

“We predict that GDP growth would likely narrow to 8% in the fourth quarter and touch somewhere below 8% in the first quarter of next year,” said Wang Hu, an analyst at Shanghai-based brokerage Guotai Junan Securities.

“It is extremely difficult for enterprises to get bank loans to support operations and industrial expansions are expected to shrink further in such an environment,” Wang added.

Analyst Meng Xiangjuan at Shanghai-based SWS Research said: “The downward trend [of GDP] would likely continue to the next two quarters. On the one hand, softening US and European demand would weigh on China exports. On the other, China needs to fight inflation and would unlikely relax its tight monetary policies in near term.”

Meng expects that growth would likely slow to 8.6% in the fourth quarter and stay around that level for a relatively long time.

Despite the slower pace, the overall economy remains healthy and within government’s expectations, NBS spokesperson Sheng Laiyun said.

By: Fanny Zhang
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