China, India, Brazil to lead economic growth in 2012

15 November 2011 22:23  [Source: ICIS news]

ST. PETERSBURG, Florida (ICIS)--China, India and Brazil will lead global economic growth in 2012, but each nation has constraints limiting their potential, a senior editor of the Economist said on Tuesday.

“China, India and Brazil will lead a world that elsewhere sees slow, uneven growth, high unemployment, a slightly contracting eurozone and financial market instability,” Economist senior editor for Latin America Robert Wood said at the Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference being held in St. Petersburg, Florida.

“In 2012, growth in China and India will moderate from high rates, while growth in the US will continue slow as Japan rebounds from natural disaster,” Wood said. 

“There are many things going right in Brazil,” Wood said. 

The Brazilian economy is stable with contained inflation kept in place by sound economic policies, said Wood.

Brazil also benefits from the favourable demographics of a young population and a large middle class that has seen 40m people rise up from poverty in recent years. 

Woods added that Brazil is an energy “powerhouse” with huge reserves of oil and natural gas, which will make the country a top-ten oil exporter within the next 10 years. 

But growth in Brazil is constrained by low investment rates, a lack of professional skills among the population and wide regional disparities, especially in the northeast region. 

“India will remain one of the fastest growing economies with gross domestic product forecast to increase 8.5% in 2012,” Wood said. 

“However, high inflation, appalling infrastructure and a weak fiscal regime constrain greater growth,” he added. 

China is slowing down, but not much, with gross domestic product climbing about 9% in 2012, compared with 10% in 2011, Wood said. 

“The Chinese government is putting some brakes to the economy,” Wood said, “but it remains to be seen whether the efforts will be enough to control inflation.”

Paul Hodges studies key influences shaping the chemical industry in Chemicals and the Economy

By: Frank Zaworski
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