GPCA '11: Greek default likely by February 2012 – analyst

13 December 2011 14:43  [Source: ICIS news]

DUBAI (ICIS)--A default by Greece on its debt could happen by February 2012, an analyst said on Tuesday, adding that the financial crisis that has engulfed Europe over the past two years is unlikely to end any time soon.

“Solvency crisis can take seven years to be worked out,” said Jan Randolph, director of sovereign risk at IHS, downplaying the notion that a quick solution exists for the region’s financial woes.

The eurozone system has its flaws, but this is nothing new, he said.

It was thought that when a crisis emerged, Europe would be able to deal with it and move on, the analyst added.

Randolph spoke at the 6th Annual GPCA (Gulf Petrochemicals & Chemicals Association) Forum in Dubai.

He repeated the widely held view that the US would not be immune in case of a meltdown in Europe.

The housing market – a key end-market for chemicals consumption – is critical for US growth, but not much is happening there, he said.

Randolph predicted interest rates would remain low for several years.

For more on ethylene visit ICIS chemical intelligence

By: William Lemos
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