CEE’s 2012 GDP forecast at 2% by Raiffeisen

11 January 2012 11:47  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--Raiffeisen Bank International expects the central and eastern Europe (CEE) region to post an average GDP growth of 2.0% for 2012, the Austrian bank said in revised forecasts issued on Wednesday.

Chemical production rates in CEE countries, such as large chemical producer the Czech Republic, have gone into sustained decline in recent months, with renewed economic turbulence having taken a toll on large export markets, particularly Germany.

“Central and eastern Europe remains under the spell of the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone,” said Peter Brezinschek, head of Raiffeisen Research.

“[However], the rather muted growth that we forecast for CEE this year must be seen in comparison to the recession of -1.0% that we are expecting for the eurozone.”

Raiffeisen Research’s analysts anticipate that the negative effects coming from strong foreign trade ties with the eurozone will be most pronounced in central Europe (CE), whose regional GDP they expect to grow by 0.5% in 2012, and southeastern Europe (SEE), which they see posting a growth rate of 0.4%.

With the exception of Poland (with an expected GDP growth of 2.2%), the analysts forecast GDP declines in all CE countries, including Austria (-0.5%).

With regard to the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Raiffeisen Research has retained its existing 3.1% GDP growth forecast for 2012.

Read Paul Hodges’ Chemicals and the Economy blog

By: Will Conroy
+44 20 8652 3214

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