Non-OECD industries to drive energy demand growth to 2030 – BP

18 January 2012 13:28  [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS)--Nations that are not part of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) would account for 96% of energy demand growth between 2010 and 2030, with demand from industry accounting for the greatest share, BP said on Tuesday.

Population and income remain the key drivers of energy demand, the oil giant said in its Energy Outlook 2030.

“Global GDP growth is likely to accelerate, driven by low- and medium-income economies. We project GDP growth to rise over the next 20 years to 3.7%/year, from 3.2%/year between 1990 and 2010. This implies accelerating growth of income per capita,” it stated.

Energy efficiency will accelerate, restraining the overall growth of primary energy consumption, it added.

“World primary energy consumption growth to 2030 decelerates to 1.6%/year (compared with 2.0%/year [over] the last 20 years); energy consumption per capita grows at 0.7%/year, about the same rate as it has since 1970,” the report forecast.

BP said it expects non-OECD energy consumption in 2030 to be 69% above 2010’s level, with average growth of 2.7%/year (or 1.6%/year per capita). This would account for 65% of global consumption, compared with 54% in 2010. OECD consumption is expected to expand by just 4% over the period, with per-capita consumption declining.

The fuel mix changes only slowly in the BP study, with gas and non-fossil fuels gaining share at the expense of coal and oil. Biofuels are expected to be the fastest-growing fuels, with gas growing the fastest among the fossil fuels.

Industry accounts for 60% of the projected growth in final energy demand to 2030, BP said with the transport sector showing the weakest growth.

BP estimates that OPEC will account for 70% of the incremental supply of liquids to 2030, with its market share approaching 45% – “a level not seen since the 1970s”.

Supply from the Americas will increase also, however, as advances in drilling technologies bring resources in Canada (oil sands) Brazilian deepwater and US shale oil into production.

BP expects the US and Brazil to account for more than half of the total production growth of biofuels expected by 2030.

Supply and demand projections indicate that the US’s energy import dependence will decline substantially, it said.

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By: Nigel Davis
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