US soybean supply, demand projections steady – crop report

09 February 2012 20:04  [Source: ICIS news]

BOGOTA (ICIS)--US government forecasters on Thursday left US soybean crop stockpile projections unchanged for the 2011-2012 growing season.

The February report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected end-of-the-crop-year soybean inventories at 275m bushel.

US soybean exports for the crop year are projected at 1.275bn bushels, down 226m from the 2010-2011 crop year, the report said. 

Soybeans are a key feedstock for biodiesel. The crop year runs September to September.

Although soybean export commitments through January trail last year’s pace, lower soybean crop forecasts and reduced export projections for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay are expected to be offset by additional US sales and exports during the second half of the year, the data said.

Soybean oil prices are forecast at 50.5 to 54.5 cents/lb ($1,111–1,202/tonne, €833–901/tonne), unchanged from last month, according to the data.

Global oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 452.5m tonnes, down 4.9m tonnes from last month, the USDA report said. 

Brazil soybean production is forecast at 72m tonnes, down 2m tonnes as a result of lower projected yields. The reduction reflects drought in southern Brazil in December and January. 

Argentina soybean production is projected at 48m tonnes, down 2.5m, the data said.

Despite widespread rains in recent weeks, the extended hot, dry period during planting and early crop development limited plantings and reduced yield prospects. 

Paraguay and Uruguay soybean production estimates are also reduced this month. 

Other production changes mentioned in the report include higher rapeseed production for China and Russia, lower rapeseed and sunflower seed production for Kazakhstan, and higher cottonseed production for Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade for 2011-2012 is projected at 110.5m tonnes, down 2.6m tonnes, reflecting reduced soybean export projections for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. 

Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 71.2m tonnes, down 3.6m from last month.  Reduced soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina account for most of the change.

($1 = €0.75)

By: Leela Landress
+1 713 525 2653

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