Asia-Pacific trade to grow at 6.5% over next five years - HSBC

22 February 2012 04:06  [Source: ICIS news]

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia Pacific trade is expected to grow at an annualised rate of 6.5% over the next five years, with petroleum oils and bitumen making up “substantial components” of the trade flow, UK-based banking firm HSBC said late on Tuesday.

“As Asia grows, its demand for oil is set to grow exponentially,” HSBC said in report.

“Over the next five years for instance, India's trade in the oil sector is forecast to increase by almost 10%, which is above the region’s total expected trade growth, demonstrating the robustness of this sector [energy and commodities],” HSBC added.

The Asia Pacific region will play a crucial role in helping the world’s economic recovery and the global uplift in trade that HSBC predicts from 2014 will take effect at a quicker pace in the Asia Pacific, it said.

“With demand flat in some of the domestic markets, in particular Europe and North America, many businesses are searching overseas for alternative trade partners and are exploring key sectoral opportunities to remain competitive,” the reportsaid.

However, the region’s ability to achieve the high rates of growth in trade will be affected by external economic and environmental factors such as the eurozone debt crisis and natural disasters, the bank said.

Intra-regional trade will continue to be a key driver of growth within the Asia Pacific, it said.

“Some of this can be attributed to the move by the world’s largest businesses to broaden their supply chains across the region, integrating themselves into manufacturing processes and, therefore, trade,” HSBC said.

Almost all of the countries in the Asia Pacific are expected to have strong export figures in the next five years, largely in the motor vehicles and commodities sectors, as trade routes continue to develop with Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, it said.

India, Australia, China and Indonesia are expected to be the region’s fastest growing exporters and importers over the next five years, according to HSBC.

India is the region’s fastest growing exporter with an estimated annual rate of 7.55% over the next five years, the bank said.

“As China expands its global reach, especially into South America and Africa but also into Europe and North America, it’s dominance in the energy and manufacturing sectors will continue to drive strong imports and exports to 2016 at annual rates of 6.59% and 6.62% respectively,” it said.

Australia is another of the region’s fastest growing in terms of exports at an annual rate of 6.9%, driven primarily by trade in commodities such as coal and iron ore – especially to China, the firm added.


By: Nurluqman Suratman



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