27 February 2012 18:56 [Source: ICIS news]
WASHINGTON (ICIS)--A leading ?xml:namespace>
In its quarterly economic forecast, the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) said that it expects
Those GDP growth rates mean, however, that for both this year and next the
But MAPI’s new forecast for the nation’s economic growth this year does mark a modest improvement from the group’s earlier outlook. In November last year MAPI was predicting 2012 US GDP of 2.1%.
That slight upward shift in the outlook is important, according to Daniel Meckstroth, MAPI’s chief economist.
“The forecast is a bit more optimistic and the probability of a double-dip recession has diminished,” Meckstroth said.
Among the positive indicators that suggest ongoing momentum for the
Durable goods manufacturing and automobile production are both key downstream consumer industries for chemicals and plastics.
In addition, said Meckstroth, “business investment is improving, and not just for repair and replacement of equipment – there is also investment in expanding capacity”.
He said that “Global infrastructure building is an economic driver, in particular creating a demand in developing countries for
“Manufacturing production will outpace the overall economy and is expected to show growth of 4% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013,” MAPI said.
However, Meckstroth added, “There remain some cautionary flags”.
Major risks to the
In response to increasing US and international pressure on the
An earlier MAPI analysis indicated that such an action by Iran to choke off the flow of crude oil through the strait’s choke point – even if short-lived – would have profound negative impact on the EU and US economies.
Paul Hodges studies key influences shaping the chemical industry in Chemicals and the Economy
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