Non-OPEC 2012 oil supply revised down by 130,000 bbl/day

09 March 2012 13:26  [Source: ICIS news]

Non-OPEC 2012 oil supply revised downLONDON (ICIS)--OPEC on Friday revised down its forecast for non-OPEC oil supply in 2012 by 130,000 bbl/day from the previous month, partly because of political issues in the Middle East.

OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report said that non-OPEC supply is now forecast to only grow by 610,000 bbl/day in 2012 to average 52.95m bbl/day.

Middle East oil supply is estimated to decrease by 120,000 bbl/day in 2012, the biggest decline among all the non-OPEC regions, to average 1.56m bbl/day, indicating a downward revision of 50,000 bbl/day from last month.

OPEC said there had been downward revisions in Syria’s and Yemen’s oil supply forecasts.

“Non-OPEC supply growth in 2012 is seen to be heading for a rough ride, due to the continued downward revisions so far,” OPEC said.

“These have been driven mainly by political issues, as well as some technical difficulties. Middle East oil supply is now forecast to decline in 2012, due to the recent adjustments,” it added.

OPEC said that North America is expected to have the largest growth in supply in 2012, followed by Latin America and the Former Soviet Union, while growth in the Africa and OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) western Europe is forecast to decline.

“The majority of the downward revision relates to the first half of the year, while the second half supply outlook remains relatively steady,” OPEC said.

World oil demand is forecast to grow by 900,000 bbl/day in 2012, unchanged from the forecast in OPEC’s February report. However, OPEC conceded that world oil demand for 2012 faces considerable uncertainties for the remainder of the year due to the weak pace of economic growth in OECD economies negatively affecting oil demand.

“Although US economic data points toward a better performance, the situation in Europe along with higher oil prices has resulted in considerable uncertainties on the future oil demand for the remainder of the year,” OPEC added.

Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 is expected to average 30.0m bbl/day, unchanged from the forecast in the previous month.

Additional reporting by Kawai Wong

By: Franco Capaldo
+44 (0)20 8652 3214

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