12 March 2012 23:15 [Source: ICIS news]
SAN DIEGO, California (ICIS)--Despite an increasing number of vehicles being driven in the US, demand for oil-based gasoline is declining and decisions from policy makers will heavily influence demand until 2030, a consultant said on Monday.
A key to the projected future decline in gasoline consumption is the increasing price of crude oil, which is heavily influenced by geopolitical issues around the world. However, policy intervention and technological breakthroughs in the US will be more significant factors, according to Khush Nariman of Houston, Texas-based McKinsey & Company.
“Quite often demand does not recover fully from a significant price shock,” Nariman said at the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) annual meeting. “Driving habits change, car types change and, as a result, that impact can be long-lived or even permanent.”
Policy intervention can take an even bigger bit out of that gasoline demand, he said. Investments in newer technologies, such as fuel efficiency and vehicle substitution, will cause gasoline demand to decline.
Additionally, efficiency mandates and standards, as well as tax credits on alternate fuels, will drive oil-based demand downwards, he said.
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