13 March 2012 02:50 [Source: ICIS news]
Correction: In the ICIS story headlined "US gasoline demand may reduce through 2025 on high oil prices" dated 13 March 2012, please read the second paragraph as …7.5m bbl/day… instead of …7.5bn bbl/day…, the third paragraph as …4.5m bbl/day… instead of …4.5bn bbl/day… and the ninth paragraph as 13 March… instead of …6 March…. A corrected story follows.
SAN DIEGO (ICIS)--US total gasoline demand has been declining since 2008 and may continue into 2025 because of higher oil prices, an analyst said on Monday.
The country’s total gasoline demand, which includes ethanol and imports, was at approximately 7.5m bbl/day in 2011, according to Edward Arnold from Jacobs Consultancy based in Naperville, Illinois.
By 2025, the number could be as low as 4.5m bbl/day, Arnold added.
Key drivers influencing demand include prices, economic growth rates, miles driven and fuel use efficiency, Arnold said during the company’s demand framework for US gasoline for 2012-2025 at the annual American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM).
The model was calculated with no foreseeable recessions in the US and no prolonged oil price hikes.
“There is a high level of uncertainty as to what will happen in the future,” Arnold said.
However, he explained that higher oil prices have, in the past, proven to contribute directly to lower gasoline demand.
According to Arnold, US gasoline demand dropped significantly four times historically, namely in the early 1970s, the late 1970s, the early 1990s and at present. Oil prices were recorded at higher levels during these periods.
The AFPM’s annual conference ends on 13 March.
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