19 April 2012 14:25 [Source: ICIS news]
VENICE (ICIS)--The road to recovery for advanced economies will be a long one, an economist said on Thursday, going on to predict that commodity prices will remain high and the pressure on costs will continue.
The long-term trend is for high prices, said Vittorio Maglia, chief economist at Federchimica, the Italian federation of the chemical industry.
Maglia was speaking at the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IISRP) conference, which is being held this week in Venice, Italy.
He estimated that Brent crude oil prices would rise to $150/bbl (€114/bbl) by 2020, and said it would take a long time for advanced economies to adjust to the effects of the latest recession.
Instability risks exist not only in the eurozone, he said, pointing to rising US deficit and debt levels. However, he said the outlook for Europe was negative, adding that a loose monetary policy would only result in minimal economic growth for the region in 2013.
Maglia was more upbeat about growth in emerging markets, however, predicting that 33% of global consumption and 53% of investments will be in emerging markets by 2020.
This figure compares with 16% and 19% in 1990, respectively, he told delegates.
The 53rd IISRP meeting opened on Monday. The conference ends on Thursday.
($1 = €0.76)
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