Global ethylene derivatives demand to rise 30% from 2010 to 2016

05 June 2012 14:37  [Source: ICIS news]

TOKYO (ICIS)--Global demand for ethylene derivative products is expected to total 157.5m tonnes in 2016, a 30.4% increase from 120.9m tonnes in 2010, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said on Tuesday.

The average annual demand growth rate for ethylene derivatives over the period is expected to be 4.5%, METI said.

The derivative products include low-density polyethylene (LDPE), high-density polyethylene (HDPE), styrene monomer (SM), ethylene glycol (EG) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC).

Asia’s total demand for ethylene derivatives is predicted to increase by 21m tonnes to 73.1m tonnes in 2016 from 52.1m tonnes in 2010, official METI data showed.

This represented an average growth rate of 5.8% per year between 2010 and 2016, led by growth in India and China, METI said.

India’s internal demand was predicted to rise to 11.3m tonnes in 2016 from 6.0m tonnes in 2010, an annual growth rate of 11.2% on average.

Demand in China is expected to increase to 41.6m tonnes in 2016 from 28.1m tonnes in 2010, an average annual growth of 6.8%, according to the METI.

In Japan, internal demand for ethylene derivatives is expected to rise to 5.1m tonnes in 2016 from 4.9m tonnes in 2010, a growth of 0.7% per annum on average from 2010 to 2016, the METI data showed.

The predictions based on each country’s outlook for chemicals production.

A total of 154.8m tonnes of ethylene derivatives are estimated to be produced globally in 2016, an increase from 122.7m tonnes in 2010, the data showed.

Asia is expected to produce 59.7m tonnes of ethylene derivatives in 2016, an increase from 43.3m in 2010.

Among Asia’s total, Japan is predicted to produce 6.3m tonnes of ethylene derivatives in 2016, a decrease from 6.6m tonnes in 2010, while China is expected to produce 24.6m tonnes in 2016, an increase from 14.2m tonnes in 2010, based on the data.

Meanwhile, the global capacity of ethylene derivatives is expected to increase to 169.1m tonnes in 2016 from 146.1m tonnes as of December 2010, growing by 2.5% per annum on average, the METI said.

The prediction was based on new projects for ethylene derivative plants globally, which are expected to come on stream by 2016, the ministry added.

Among the global total, the capacity of ethylene derivatives in Asia is expected to increase to 63.9m tonnes in 2016 from 50.3m tonnes in 2010, a growth of 4.1% per annum, based on the METI data.

Japan’s capacity of ethylene derivatives is expected to decrease to 7.5m in 2016 from 7.7m in 2010, while capacity in India is predicted to increase to 8.0m tonnes in 2016 from 4.7m in 2010, according to METI’s data.

The ministry did not state the reason for Japan’s expected decrease in ethylene derivative capacity.

The global capacity for ethylene was expected to rise to 173.2m tonnes in 2016 from 144.9m tonnes in 2010, an average growth of 3.0% per annum, based on the ministry data.

Read John Richardson and Malini Hariharan's Asian Chemical Connections blog


By: Tomomi Yokomura
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